Wishful thinking

Last night I had a hard time falling asleep. This has been happening more often recently for a variety of reason. Last night I was obsessing about Vikingman again, but in sort of a good way. I was trying to figure out if there is any reasonable expectation that I could bust a time under 6 hours. I decided that there is some remote possibility but all of the planets have to align and I will have to be feeling it Saturday morning.

Here is how it could be done:

Swim time: 35 minutes. This seems reasonable. Most of the times are at least this fast from last year. So I think it is possible. I am a much better swimming than last year for my first couple of triathlons. I just have to make sure that I am in a good state of mind so that I don't freak out. Last year only 9 of 45 in my age group went longer than 35 minutes.

Transition 1: 4 min 30 sec (Total 39:30). This should be possible. Not sure of the layout of the transition area, but this seems like a good middle of the road time from last year.

Bike time: 2hrs 56 min 30 sec (Total 3 hrs 36 min): This time is figured by my going roughly 19 mph. This would put me right smack in the middle of my age group for time last year. I am a fairly decent rider, I hope I can finish mid pack. During my other shorter tri's last summer I finished either at or near mid pack for men in my age group--and one of those tri's was done with no training for 8 out of the last 12 weeks prior to the tri due to an appendectomy and then bronchitis. So finishing mid pack should be possible here. 19mph is not out of the question, I average faster than that during my practice run in Central Oregon a couple of weeks ago.

Transition 2: 2 min 30 seconds (Total 3 hrs 38 min 30 sec). Seems reasonable. Most of the racers last year finished the transition in less time, so I am going with it.

Run time: This is the biggie. I ran a half marathon last year and exploded because I went out too fast. It was also slightly up hill almost the whole way. That was one bad experience; cramping, felt like I had to crap so I sat on the pot for a minute, a blister on the bottom of my foot. I was lucky to do it in the time I did--about 2hours and 38 minutes. But if I maintain a decent pace, don't blister up, don't blow up, and my bowels stay calm I think a much better time is possible at Vikingman. When I run around the neighborhood there are lots of hills. I have a difficult time gauging what I will do at Vikingman. Even with the hills I do at least 5mph and as well as 5.5 mph. On a track I can run 10:30 to 11:30 for a long time, without my heart rate going too high. I could have pushed it more, certainly. If I run 11:00 miles my total running time would be just over 2 hours and 24 minutes. This would put me over the 6 hour time limit by 2 min 30 seconds. So I have to be running a bit faster. I think 10:45 per mile is possible. The total run time would be 2 hours 20 minutes and 50 seconds. My total time would be 5 hours 59 minutes and 20 seconds. This is possible.

I want to finish. I want to be under 6 hours 20 minutes for a secondary goal. A sub 6 hour time is the stretch goal. Yeah, I can do this. Whether if I do, well, we shall see.